Day-ahead weighted-average peak prices at regional trading hubs
| Period | Mid-C (Northwest) | NP-15 (N. California) | SP-15 (S. California) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016–2017 (OVG Study) | ~$34 | ~$28 | ~$47 | Baseline period |
| 2024 | ~$44 | ~$47 | ~$52 | Jan cold snap, low gas |
| 2025 | ~$30 (↓$14) | ~$55 | ~$62 | Gas +56%, Mid-C hydro up |
| 2026 (est.) | ~$38 | ~$58 | ~$65 | BPA FY26, demand growth |
Columbia & Snake River dams from the OVG study — click to auto-fill parameters
Your Result vs. OVG Study Benchmarks (MW)
Original 2016-17 averages + scaled to current wholesale prices
| Dam | River | Surplus MW | % Uplift | OVG 2016-17 Revenue ($K) | Est. 2026 Revenue ($K) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-C | NP-15 | SP-15 | Mid-C | NP-15 | SP-15 | ||||
Hydropower Formula:
P = F × ρ × g × H × Ef
where F = water flow (m³/s), ρ = 1000 kg/m³, g = 9.81 m/s², H = effective head (m), Ef = efficiency factor.
Pump Savings Formula:
Ppump = (N × Q × ρ × g × Hpump) / Efpump
Auxiliary pumps currently consume power to deliver make-up water to fish ladders. Eliminating them frees this energy.
Annual Average Power:
Pavg = Ppeak × CF
The Annual Capacity Factor (CF) accounts for seasonal maintenance closures, variable daily flow rates, and real turbine efficiency curves. For the eight OVG study dams, CF is pre-calibrated to match the OVG annual average results; for custom dams, CF defaults to 0.85 and is user-adjustable.
Revenue:
Revenue = (Pavg × Operating Hours) × Electricity Price
Surplus generation sold on regional wholesale markets (Mid-C, NP-15, SP-15 hubs).
During spring spill season (Apr–Jun), only peak-hour trading is assumed.
Unit Conversion:
1 CFS (cubic foot per second) = 0.0283168 m³/s
Price Scaling (2025/2026):
OVG historical revenues are scaled proportionally to current hub prices.
E.g., 2026 SP-15 revenue ≈ OVG revenue × ($65 / $47).
Hydraulic Head:
This calculator uses effective hydraulic head (actual water level differential through turbines), not dam structure height. OVG preset heads are corrected to USACE operational data.